The ongoing conflict and security concerns in the Middle East have injected fresh uncertainty into Dubai’s real estate market. Long viewed as a premier global safe haven for investment, the region’s recent instability has challenged that perception. Real estate transactions in the UAE experienced a sharp drop following the onset of the war. Citing a Goldman Sachs analysis, Reuters reported that UAE property transactions plummeted 37% year-on-year and 49% month-on-month during the first 12 days of March, with price discounts ranging between 12% and 15% on select properties.
This shift holds significant implications for Bangladesh, given the substantial volume of Bangladeshi capital previously channeled into Dubai’s property market.
According to land record data analyzed by C4ADS and published by The Daily Star, 461 Bangladeshi nationals were identified as owners of 929 properties in Dubai, valued at an estimated $400 million (approx. BDT 5,000 crore). While these figures stem from 2020 and 2022 records—meaning current valuations and ownership details may vary—they highlight a major capital outflow.
Not all offshore holdings represent illicit wealth, as legitimate foreign investments exist. However, Bangladesh’s Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) continues to investigate suspected money laundering cases involving Dubai property purchases, and tax authorities have recently requested tax details for dozens of Bangladeshi nationals who secured Dubai property under the Golden Visa program.
This brings forth a critical question: As security risks dampen the appeal of foreign property, could a portion of this capital return home?
For Bangladesh, this presents a strategic opportunity. Investors previously eyeing overseas acquisitions may now reconsider the domestic market. Simultaneously, the government could establish targeted policy frameworks to encourage the repatriation of legitimate, declarable foreign funds.
The domestic real estate sector stands out as a natural destination for this capital. Real estate is intrinsically tied to a vast ecosystem comprising cement, steel, ceramics, furniture, architecture, engineering, and banking. Data from the Real Estate and Housing Association of Bangladesh (REHAB) indicates that the sector links directly and indirectly to roughly 269 industries and supports the livelihoods of nearly 5 million people. Projections for FY 2025–26 estimate the sector’s direct economic contribution at around BDT 4.8 trillion.
When a Bangladeshi citizen purchases property in Dubai, that capital stimulates foreign growth. Conversely, deploying those same funds domestically into apartments, commercial space, hospitality, or land development circulates capital locally, generates employment, and boosts tax revenues.
However, offering blanket amnesties for illicit wealth is not a sustainable solution. Instead, policies should focus on facilitating the legal repatriation of declared funds and integrating unreported capital into the formal economy through clear legal mechanisms, appropriate taxation, and source-of-fund verifications.
While the long-term impact of regional conflict on Dubai’s property market remains to be seen, emerging security concerns are forcing global investors to reassess risk. Bangladesh must capitalize on this timing. By making the local real estate market more transparent, secure, and investor-friendly, Bangladesh can retain outbound capital and direct it toward sustaining broader national economic growth.
Tabassum Imam
Vice President, Real Estate Professionals Forum
CEO, NEX Real Estate
